Bitcoin has had a rough patch over the past month, falling so hard that it is (almost) a record fall for BTC. On the surface, this crash is worse then the 2013/14 historic Bitcoin and Crypto market fall. Looking at the market cap, we are actually (at time of writing) about 6% lower then that historic collapse.
Bitcoin mining difficulty fell by 15%, the sharpest decline since 2011.
The market cap is around $128 billion.
Trading volume is stable at $14 billion.
Bitcoin Dominance currently at 53.9%.
So what’s next?
Our LupoToro analysts all believe we are near the bottom of this fall. We should see another leg down, before finding support between the 2k and 3k levels. There is a slim chance of 1.9k BTC, however this is less likely. At 3k there is little support, so a fall to 2.5k is a possibility; we may touch on 2k flat before a bounce up.
Short-term, we expect a recovery rally between late December 2018 and January 2019. Good news to regain some profits in you are day-trading!
Medium-term, we expect to be tracking sideways in 2019 with smaller dips and rallies.
A bullrun on the horizon?
Fundamentally, the fundamental analysis does lead us to believe we could bullrun early to mid 2019. Is this likely? Well, before we answer, lets look at the technical analysis (also considering the market cap). TA says not likely, FA says likely. You need to consider both but we prefer to favour TA as that is what traders watch - they watch the charts. You can have all the good news in the world, but if the traders are bearish and trade bearishly, it would take MASSIVE fundamentally good news to break chart trading trends and push up, leading to a bullrun. Is it impossible? No.
Accumulate. Set stop losses. Be wise. Don’t over invest. Be patient. The patient are always rewarded in traditional stocks and this holds true for Crypto.
We are not providing financial advice here, just general information.